Archive for May, 2009

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One of the biggest headaches you can face when buying a new house is a lengthy chain.

It will slow your transaction down and make it more likely that your sale will fall through.

Use our handy property guide to understand what a chain is, what the most common problems are, and what you can do to ensure things happen as they are supposed to.

What is a chain?

About 85 per cent of house sales in England and Wales take place within a chain, making it highly likely you will be involved in one at some point. It’s a practice that is virtually unique to the UK!

The chain is a link of house sales that are dependent on each other. It starts with a first time buyer or someone getting a buy-to-let property, and ends with someone selling a property but not buying one. All the properties in-between are linked.

The entire chain has to exchange contracts simultaneously.

Why does it sometimes go wrong?

Any property guide will tell you it’s a simple process in theory. In reality, chains are put together in a number of transactions over months, and that can cause a huge amount of stress. If you are the first time buyer at the bottom of the chain and so the last piece of the jigsaw puzzle, you may be completing a chain that is already six months old. What seems like a quick process to you could be the end of a long nightmare for the people at the top.

A bad survey or someone changing their mind in the middle of the chain will cause it to break. And that can cost everyone money, as they will have already paid for searches and legal fees. This is why property auctions are a popular way for investors to buy, as they avoid all of these problems.

A top property guide told us the most common reasons for a chain falling apart are deadlines for paperwork being missed, finance falling through at the last minute, hidden problems revealed in a survey, a problem with documents or gazundering. This is where a buyer reduces their offer at the last minute, virtually forcing a seller to reduce their price.

So what can I do to keep the chain together?

Well, the most obvious step is to avoid a long chain in the first place. It may be more sensible for you to accept a lower offer for your house from someone with no chain, than a higher offer by someone at the end of a long one (although as with any difficult decision, get advice from a qualified property guide first).

If you have no choice but to enter a chain, then there are some simple steps you can take to keep it together.

First off make sure everyone is ready for a sale to go through. That means having mortgage offers in place, solicitors briefed and ready to act, and target completion dates in mind.

It can be sensible to get to know your buyer well. If you can develop an open relationship, it will be easier for you to pick up the phone and get an update on the sale, rather than be constantly going through solicitors.

One property guide recommended you ask your estate agent or solicitor to inspect the paperwork throughout the chain to try and spot potential problems down the line.

Keep in touch with the key people involved in the sale. Don’t be afraid to ring your solicitor regularly to chase progress – they work for you remember.

And finally, if the chain looks like it could be a real nightmare, you could always break it yourself. If you sell your house and move into temporary rented accommodation, you may find both the sale and subsequent purchase a lot easier.

The Chandigarh Housing Board (CHB) has finally decided to change with the times. In a major pro-people move, it has decided to make property transactions in the city hassle-free by allowing mutual sale and purchase of dwelling units by allottees. Until now, the transfer of CHB flats in Chandigarh was based on the general power of attorney, a system rife with defects and legal complications.

But all that is now passé, with the board of directors of CHB deciding on February 20 to make their flat transfer policy people-friendly and transparent. The new move will benefit a substantial number of about 50,000 owners/allottees of CHB dwelling units in the city, and will change the way property transactions are carried out in the region. Most importantly, it will offer relief to people whose properties have been lying blocked for years due to legal wrangles.

The CHB, ever since it came into existence in 1971, has been a witness to countless problems posed by GPA transfer policy. Due to stringent laws governing the sale and purchase of residential property in Chandigarh , a majority of allottees had resorted to sale through general power of attorney.

Since initially the CHB did not recognise GPA, property transaction through this system led to several complications including legal battles between the original allottees and buyers on the one hand and original allottees and the CHB on the other. This often led to blackmailing by allottees or their legal heirs who found it convenient to extract money from interested buyers of residential property. This was besides the hefty premium which buyers paid to allottees/sellers.

The practice naturally allowed property dealers to mushroom and make hay as they negotiated deals between various parties and charged heavily in the guise of completing endless formalities besides charging their commission. The GPA transfer system had bred corruption in the ranks of CHB, particularly in public-dealing branches.

Keeping in mind these complication, the CHB had, in 2001, come out with a policy to regularise GPA sale by fixing charges for the transfer of property by original allottees besides also fixing terms and conditions like clearance of dues, retention of original structure of the dwelling unit, respect for building bylaws etc. The regularisation of GPA, however, helped little, with buyers of residential units continuing to face harassment.

The new mutual transfer policy will bring buyers and sellers face to face for the first time and eliminate the role of middlemen like property dealers. The move will also end the nexus between property dealers and officials by allowing genuine buyers and sellers to own property in a legal way.

Besides, it is expected to bring revenue to Chandigarh Administration as transactions would involve the payment of stamp duty and other prescribed charges. Until now, stamp duty worth crores was being evaded in the name of large scale sale and purchase of CHB flats through GPA. The new policy will protect the financial interests of Chandigarh Administration besides being people-friendly.

Meanwhile, the board had said GPAs taken to date would be acceptable till the time the new policy came into effect. It has added, however, that people would eventually have to own property on the terms and conditions specified in the mutual transfer policy.

Further in a bid to curb speculation, the CHB has categorically said that GPA holders will no longer be eligible to apply for flats in any of its residential project schemes. Residential property, say board officials, must go to the shelter-less people. The board has meanwhile also allowed transfer of residential property in Chandigarh on the basis of one surety. Earlier two sureties were required.

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It has been a dismal year for house prices, according to the Global Property Guide’s latest survey of publicly-available house-price time-series for the year 2008. And seen from a global perspective, the downturn is still accelerating.

The collapse of the world’s housing markets can be seen from three points of view, and unfortunately, all of them reinforce the bad news.

During 2008, the downward price momentum accelerated, as compared to 2007.
Only 2 countries saw positive momentum in 2008 (a slower downward house price movement than last year, or faster upward movement), while 28 countries saw their housing market momentum deteriorating, compared to the previous year. The two countries with a positive momentum were Germany and Switzerland.

During 2008, house prices fell in most countries.
During 2008 only 8 out of 32 countries saw house prices rise, after adjustment for inflation, while 20 countries experienced house price falls.

In contrast, during the year 2007, the downturn was just beginning, and only 6 countries saw house prices fall, while 24 countries saw house prices rise (all figures inflation-adjusted).

Many house-price falls during 2008 were extremely severe. Countries with house price falls of over 10% during 2008 were Latvia (Riga) (37%), Lithuania (Vilnius) (27%), the US (20%), the UK (18%), Iceland (16%), Ireland (12%), and the Ukraine (Kiev) (12%) (all figures inflation-adjusted).

During the final quarter (Q4) of 2008, the downward price momentum significantly accelerated, as compared to Q3, suggesting that the situation is deteriorating.

During 2008’s final quarter, 9 countries saw house price falls of 5% or more during just that quarter. Price drops of more than 10% during this single quarter occurred in three countries – in Latvia (Riga), which saw price falls of 15%, in Ukraine (Kiev) (13%), and in Hong Kong (15%). Other countries with Q4 house-price falls of 5% and over, included the UAE (8%), Lithuania (7%), Iceland (7%), Singapore (6%), Bulgaria (5%), and the UK (5%) (all figures inflation-adjusted, except UAE).

These price falls were much greater than during the previous quarter, Q3. During that previous quarter, only two countries experienced house-price falls (inflation-adjusted) of 5% or more, and no countries experienced house-price falls of more than 10%.

REGIONAL SURVEY BY GLOBAL PROPERTY GUIDE

Europe has major problems
The Baltic countries of Latvia and Lithuania suffered the hardest price falls both in nominal and real terms. In Riga, Latvia, the average price of standard-type apartments plunged 37% during 2008. Prices have been going down in Latvia since late 2007, after a remarkable increase of about 70% in 2006. The most alarming decline took place in the 4th quarter, when prices declined by 15%, the steepest quarterly drop in real terms in any country. These price falls were triggered by increased interest rates, and by the tightened credit rules which Latvia imposed in 2007.

Average prices of apartments in Vilnius, Lithuania, fell by 27% during 2008. House prices started slowing in mid-2007, and crashed in early 2008.

House prices in the UK plummeted by 18% in 2008. Although mortgage interest rates dropped slightly, to 4.48% in December 2008, the number of loan approvals for house purchases fell 58% in 2008.

There is serious trouble in Iceland (house price fall of 16% during 2008), Ireland (12%), Ukraine (12%), Malta (9%), Portugal (8%), France (8%) Finland (7%), Norway (6%) and in Spain (6%).

North America’s woes
In the US, the centre of the global financial crisis, in 2008 house prices fell 20% according to the Case-Shiller house price index, which emphasizes urban areas. OFHEO and FHFB figures, which are associated with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans and have somewhat lost credibility, suggest a smaller decline of 6% and 3% respectively, during 2008. The US government recently approved a $ 787 billion economic stimulus package, of which $275 billion will be allocated to rescue the ailing housing market.

Canada has been much less affected than the US.

Pacific heads down
Both Australia and New Zealand saw house price declines during 2008, of 7% and 8% respectively.

Asia no longer insulated
Housing markets in Asia have not been insulated. Singapore, Hong Kong and Philippines recorded house price falls during 2008.

Singapore’s private residential prices dropped 9% during 2008, in sharp contrast to the 26% price increase of experienced during 2007. The developed countries’ economic troubles adversely affected Singapore’s exports, and during 2008, output in the manufacturing sector, particularly of electronics, precision engineering and chemicals, shrank by 10.7%. Singapore was officially in recession in Q3 2008.

Hong Kong has been badly hit by the crisis. House prices were down by an average of 6% in 2008. But during the last quarter, Hong Kong experienced a severe decline in prices of 14%.

In Makati, Philippines, prime 3-bedroom condominium prices fell by 2% during 2008, after an 11% price rise during 2007. Nevertheless construction of high-rise residential buildings continues, with residential condominium stock rising by 7% during 2008, according to Colliers Philippines.

Japan recorded modest Tokyo condominium price rises of 1.2% during 2008. On the other hand, land prices in Japan’s six major cities fell by 6% y-o-y to Sep-2008.

In Shanghai, China, house price rises slowed to 5% y-o-y by the end of 2008, after peaking at 30% y-o-y to May 2008. However Shanghai is likely to be somewhat exceptional, and Xinhua News Agency reported house prices declines in 70 major cities during 2008. Shenzhen suffered the hardest fall, with prices down by 18% during 2008

UAE on shaky ground
In Dubai, UAE, despite the bleak global picture, saw surprisingly large dwelling price rises of 41% during 2008. However during the year’s final quarter, prices fell by 8% in nominal terms. This downturn is attributable to strongly tightening lending criteria, an increase in interest rates, multiple layoffs, and alarm among buyers.

Forecast: No recovery in 2009
History suggests that in a crash, housing markets take many years from peak year to full recovery. In view of this and of the pessimistic IMF forecast for the global economy, no real recovery is likely in the global housing markets this year.

The IMF has predicted that the world economy will grow by 0.5% in 2009, the lowest level in 60 years. GDP in advanced economies is expected to decline by 2% during 2009. The United Kingdom and Japan will be hit the hardest. Output in the UK may contract by 2.8%, while Japan’s may fall by 2.6%.

Growth in emerging economies is expected to slow to 3.3% in 2009, down from 6.3% in 2008. Developing Asia is forecast to be the least affected, with growth of 5.5%. China’s economy is predicted grow by 6.7% in 2009, but this is a substantial decline from 9% growth during 2008.

We cannot be optimistic for five reasons:
• Valuations still clearly remain stretched in most countries, in terms of price/rent ratios.
• Economic growth is slowing or negative in many countries, which is negative for housing values.
• There are no signs that banks are becoming more willing to lend.
• The unprecedented nature of the financial system’s collapse has greatly added to the difficulties facing the world’s housing markets.
• Some national governments are experiencing difficulty in refinancing their national debt, putting their currencies under pressure. Currency instability is likely to aggravate housing sector problems in countries where many loans were taken out in a foreign currency.

The positive news is that the US government and several others are acting with vigour, as has the IMF. Nevertheless, there is a long tough road ahead.

###
Description of the Global Property Guide:
The Global Property Guide (http://www.globalpropertyguide.com) is an on-line property research house, specializing in analyzing residential property valuations around the world.

Terms of Use:
On-line newspapers, magazines, sites, etc wishing to use material from this press release MUST provide a clickable link to www.globalpropertyguide.com Sites and newspapers found not to be providing a link to us will be removed from our press list.

Requests for Comments:
Requests for comments are best made by telephone to +(63) 917 321 7073. UK-based callers should telephone before lunchtime. Our local time is Hong Kong time, i.e., standard time + 8.00

Economics Team:
Prince Christian Cruz, Senior Economist
Phone: (+632) 750 0560
Email: prince@globalpropertyguide.com

Publisher and Strategist:
Matthew Montagu-Pollock
Phone: (+632) 867 4220
Cell: (+63) 917 321 7073
Email: editor@globalpropertyguide.com

Address:
Global Property Guide
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com
5F Electra House Building
115-117 Esteban Street
Legaspi Village, Makati City
Philippines 1229
info@globalpropertyguide.com

The winners: Singapore, South Korea and the Philippines

Singapore experienced Asia’s highest residential property price increases during 2006, with 9.5% real (inflation-adjusted) house price rises.

There were also 9.3% real house price increases in South Korea, and 9.1% real house price increases in the Philippines. These were seen in the Global Property Guide House Price Indices, the biggest collection of residential property price indices.

Singapore’s strong 2006 GDP growth rate, at 7.9%, pushed up demand for Singapore property. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) private residential property price index rose by 10% (9.5% in real terms) in 2006.

South Korea also saw a strong rebound in property prices, despite continued efforts by the government to depress the market. The Kookmin Bank’s house price index rose 11.6% in Dec. 2006 (9.3% in real terms) from a year earlier.

In the Philippines, strong economic growth and reduced inflation contributed to the continued recovery of the real estate sector. In addition, demand from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) and dual citizens has been strong, pushing prices up. Luxury condominium prices in the Philippines rose 15% (9% in real terms) in 2006, following an 11% nominal price rise in 2005, according to Colliers International.

Japan and Hong Kong are laggards

Japan’s residential property market continued to fall in 2006, despite repeated attempts by the media to portray the market as rallying. Nevertheless, the residential urban land price index registered a smaller fall in 2006 (-2.8%) compared to last year (-4.7%).

Hong Kong’s property market turned negative (-2.13%) in 2006, after impressive gains in 2004 (27%) and 2005 (8%). Higher interest rates in the US, mirrored directly in Hong Kong, were a major cause of the downturn.

Taiwan’s messy political crisis seems to have frozen residential prices, with 0% appreciation during 2006. In real terms, Taiwan experienced a decline in house prices during 2006 (-1.7%). During three years prior to the second quarter of 2006, Taiwan’s Sinyi house price index rose 17%.

In Malaysia, house prices did not to keep pace with inflation. Malaysian house prices today are at the same level as 1995, in real terms.

Thailand saw the end of ending its strong post-Asian crisis property market recovery, as the political crisis impacted the economy. House prices moved up just 1.9% in 2006 (-2.4% in real terms), after 2005’s price increase of 7% (1.5% in real terms), and 2004’s rise of 9% (6% in real terms).

Indonesia managed to reduce 4Q 2006 inflation to 6% from 16% during the first three quarters. With the house price index registering a 6.6% increase in 2006; house prices rose by 0.5% in real terms.

The 2007 elections – risks abound

2007 is an election year in Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines, and political uncertainty is likely to increase. There will also be elections in Japan and Hong Kong, but they are unlikely to have much impact on the real estate market. In Thailand, uncertainty will increase if elections are not called.

The Philippines. A victory for President Arroyo’s party in the upcoming Congressional elections would be positive for real estate. Election years in the Philippines bring money inflows, but also increased uncertainty. But if Arroyo wins enough seats in Congress she will push constitutional change, removing constitutional limits on foreign ownership of real estate and companies – good for real estate.

South Korea. The economic interventionism of left-of-center President Roh Moo-hyun has been damaging for Korea’s housing market. His support is crumbling, and a less interventionist president may be elected in December. But even if the opposition Grand National Party wins, excessive government intervention in the housing market has a very long history in South Korea.

Taiwan. Parliamentary elections at end-2007 will provide a strong lead on whether the Kuomintang (KMT) can regain control of the presidency in 2008 from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). President Chen Shui-bian’s two terms have largely been spent on keeping him from being ousted. Significant banking and tax reforms have been held hostage by politics.

Japan. Half of the seats in the upper house will be contested in July. Seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may be reduced, risking its reform agenda. These seats were won with the help of former prime minister and popular reformist Junichiro Koizumi.

Hong Kong. Donald Tsang is up for re-election as chief executive where elections are still largely ceremonial and Beijing’s anointment is the only significant factor. Pro-democracy campaigners are hoping and pushing for reforms to full democracy and Mr. Tsang’s failure to push for constitutional reforms in 2005 means that this will be his last term.

Thailand. The sooner elections are called, and Thailand is returned to democracy, the better it will be for the property market and the economy as a whole. The fate of Thailand’s property market hinges on the junta. If the junta prolongs military rule, the market will suffer.

The Global Property Guide sees inflation risks to be minimal in Asia in 2006. But other risks threaten the real estate market, particularly the re-emergence of bird flu in several countries, Indonesia in particular.

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